湘潭市社区老年人肌少症患病率调查及预测模型构建
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(湘潭市中心医院康复医学科二科,湖南 湘潭411100)

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R49

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湘潭市科技局创新科研项目(SF-YB20211019);湖南省临床医疗技术创新引导项目(2021SK52408)


Prevalence of sarcopenia among community-dwelling older adults in Xiangtan City and construction of a prediction model based on related factors
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(Second Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, Xiangtan Central Hospital, Xiangtan 411100, Hunan Province, China)

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    摘要:

    目的 调查湘潭市老城区60岁及以上老年人肌少症患病率并构建其危险因素预测模型。方法 于2021年7月至11月通过方便抽样方法选取湘潭市老城区5个社区(新四村、新五村、泉心塘、雷公塘、芭塘社区)≥60岁的社区居民进行肌少症患病率的筛查。通过生物电阻抗分析仪InbodyS10检测肌肉质量,采用握力计检测肌肉力量,测量四肢围度、6m步行速度,采用简易肌体功能评估量表评估躯体功能,采用现场调查问卷收集基本信息和可疑危险因素。采用SPSS 19.0软件进行数据分析。根据数据类型,组间比较分别采用t检验、Wilcoxon检验、χ2检验及Fisher精确概率检验。采用logistic回归分析肌少症的相关因素。采用R4.2.2 软件和RMS程序包制作肌少症患病风险列线图预测模型,绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线评估列线图模型的预测性能。结果 共556例老年人纳入研究,其中男性276例,女性280例。肌少症患者87例(15.65%)。多因素logistic回归分析显示:年龄(OR=1.141,95%CI 1.088~1.201)是肌少症发生的危险因素,体质量指数(OR=0.732,95%CI 0.627~0.852)、大腿围度(OR=0.899,95%CI 0.832~0.961)、小腿围度(OR=0.871,95%CI 0.761~0.992)是肌少症发生的保护因素(均P<0.05)。根据这4个变量构建列线图预测模型,模型的ROC曲线下面积为0.895。结论 湘潭市老城区老年人肌少症患病率较高,男性高于女性,增龄是肌少症发生的危险因素,体质量指数越大、大腿围度、小腿围度越粗是肌少症发生的保护因素;预测模型对肌少症患病有较好的预测能力。

    Abstract:

    Objective To investigate the prevalence of sarcopenia in the elderly aged 60 years and above living in the old town of Xiangtan City and to construct a prediction model for its risk factors. Methods The community residents≥60 years old were recruited through convenience sampling from 5 communities (Xinsi Village, Xinwu Village, Quanxintang, Leigongtang, Batang Community) in the old town of Xiangtan City from July to November 2021 to screen the prevalence of sarcopenia. Bioelectrical impedance analyzer InbodyS10 was used to measure muscle mass. Muscle strength was measured by grip dynamometer, limb circumference was measured, 6-meter walking speed was observed, and physical function was assessed by short physical performance battery. Basic information and suspected risk factors were collected through on-site survey questionnaires. SPSS statistics 19.0 was used for statistical analysis. Data comparison between two groups was perfomed using t test, Wilcoxon test, χ2 test or Fisher exact probability test depending on data type. Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the factors related to sarcopenia. R4.2.2 software and RMS package were used to create a risk column chart prediction model for sarcopenia, and draw the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to evaluate the predictive performance of the column chart model. Results A total of 556 elderly patients were included in the study, including 276 males and 280 females. There were 87 (15.65%) patients with sarcopenia. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age (OR=1.141,95%CI 1.088-1.201) was the risk factor for sarcopenia, while, body mass index (OR=0.732,95%CI 0.627-0.852), thigh circumference (OR=0.899,95%CI 0.832-0.961) and calf circumference (OR=0.871,95%CI 0.761-0.992) were protective factors for the occurrence of sarcopenia. According to these 4 variables, a prediction model was constructed, and the area under the ROC curve of the model was 0.895. Conclusion The prevalence of sarcopenia is quite high in the elderly in the old urban area of Xiangtan City, and the males have a higher prevalence than the females. Advanced age is a risk factor, while larger body mass index, thicker thigh and calf circumferences are protective factors for the occurrence of sarcopenia. Our prediction model shows a good predictive capacity for occurrence of sarcopenia.

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陈佳惟,李泽云,彭坤,肖勒,刘鑫.湘潭市社区老年人肌少症患病率调查及预测模型构建[J].中华老年多器官疾病杂志,2023,22(9):663~668

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  • 收稿日期:2022-12-30
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-09-20
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