血管活性药物评分评估老年脓毒性休克患者预后的价值
作者:
作者单位:

(东部战区总医院干部病房一科,南京 210002)

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

R631

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金青年项目(81701890);军队保健专项(17BJZ17)


Prognostic value of vasoactive inotropic score for septic shock in the elderly
Author:
Affiliation:

(First Department of Geriatrics, General Hospital of Eastern Theater Command, Nanjing 210002, China)

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    目的 探讨血管活性药物评分(VIS)对老年脓毒性休克患者预后的预测价值。方法 回顾性分析2018年1月至2019年12月东部战区总医院收治的93例老年脓毒性休克患者的临床资料,根据诊断脓毒症及脓毒性休克的生命体征及实验室结果,计算脓毒症及脓毒性休克期间最高急性生理和慢性健康状态评分Ⅱ(APACHE Ⅱ)及序贯器官衰竭评分(SOFA),计算脓毒性休克第1个48h最高VIS。根据脓毒性休克后28d生存情况分为存活组和死亡组。比较各组年龄、性别、吸烟史、饮酒史、生化指标、APACHE Ⅱ、SOFA、VIS、血管活性药使用情况及器官受累情况差异。采用单因素及多因素logistic回归分析探讨老年脓毒性休克患者28d死亡的危险因素,绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线评估APACHE Ⅱ、SOFA、VIS对老年脓毒性休克患者28d死亡的预测价值。采用SPSS 24.0软件进行数据分析。根据数据类型,组间比较分别采用t检验、非参数检验、Fisher精确概率法和χ2检验。结果 随访28d后,55例(59.14%)患者死亡(死亡组),38例(40.86%)患者存活(存活组)。死亡组APACHE Ⅱ、SOFA、VIS、使用血管活性药物种类、白细胞介素-6(IL-6)水平明显高于存活组(P<0.05)。多因素logistic回归分析结果显示,APACHE Ⅱ(OR=1.228,95%CI 1.051~1.436)、SOFA(OR=1.505,95%CI 1.084~2.091)、VIS(连续变量)(OR=1.027,95%CI 1.002~1.054)、VIS≥17.06(分类变量)(OR=7.523,95%CI 1.445~39.154)是老年脓毒性休克患者28d死亡的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。APACHE Ⅱ、SOFA、VIS预测老年脓毒性休克患者28d死亡的ROC曲线下面积(AUC)分别是0.911(95%CI 0.852~0.969)、0.895(95%CI 0.825~0.964)、0.763(95%CI 0.663~0.862)。多变量联合预测老年脓毒性休克短期结局的准确性更高:VIS联合APACHE Ⅱ预测老年脓毒性休克患者死亡的AUC为0.926,灵敏度0.836,特异度0.947;VIS联合SOFA预测老年脓毒性休克患者死亡的AUC为0.911,灵敏度0.945,特异度0.763。VIS最佳截断点为17.06时,预测老年脓毒性休克患者28d死亡的灵敏度0.691,特异度0.789。结论 老年脓毒性休克患者48h内最大VIS与预后相关,是28d死亡的独立危险因素,可作为评价老年脓毒性休克患者预后的指标。

    Abstract:

    Objective To investigate the predictive value of vasoactive inotropic score (VIS) for the clinical outcome of septic shock in the elderly. Methods Clinical data of 93 elderly patients with septic shock admitted in our hospital from January 2018 to December 2019 were collected and retrospectively analyzed. Based on the vital signs and laboratory results for diagnosing sepsis and septic shock, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health EvaluationⅡ score (APACHE Ⅱ) and sequential organ failure assessment score (SOFA) were calculated during sepsis, and the highest VIS in the first 48 h diagnosed with septic shock was also calculated. According to clinical outcome in 28 d after septic shock, the patients were divided into the death group and the survival group. Age, gender, smoking and drinking history, biochemical indicators, APACHE Ⅱ score, SOFA score, VIS, use of vasoactive drugs, and involved organ dysfunction were compared among different groups. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to analyze the risk factors of death in elderly patients with septic shock within 28 d. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted to analyze the predictive value of SOFA score, APACHE Ⅱ score and VIS for death in 28 d. SPSS statistics 24.0 was used for statistical analysis. Data comparison between two groups was performed using student′s t test, nonparametric test, Fisher exact probability test or Chi-square test depending on data type. Results Within 28 d of follow-up, 55 patients (59.14%) died and assigned into the death group, and 38 (40.86%) survived and served as the survival group. The death group had significantly higher APACHE Ⅱ score, SOFA score, VIS, proportion of patients using vasoactive drugs and IL-6 level than the survival group (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed APACHE Ⅱ score (OR=1.228,95%CI 1.051-1.436), SOFA score (OR=1.505,95%CI 1.084-2.091), VIS (as continuous variable, OR=1.027,95%CI 1.002-1.054), and VIS ≥17.06 (as categorical variable, OR=7.523,95%CI 1.445-39.154) were independent risk factors of 28 d death in elderly patients with septic shock (P<0.05). The AUC value of APACHE Ⅱ score, SOFA score and VIS in predicting 28 d death was 0.911 (95%CI 0.852-0.969), 0.895 (95%CI 0.825-0.964) and 0.763 (95%CI 0.663-0.862) respectively in elderly patients with septic shock. The combined detection of multiple indicators had better accuracy in the prediction for the short-term outcome. The AUC value of VIS combined with APACHE Ⅱ score was 0.926, with a sensitivity of 0.836 and a specificity of 0.947, and the value of VIS combined with SOFA score was 0.911, with a sensitivity of 0.945 and a specificity of 0.763. The cut-off point of VIS was 17.06 points, with a sensitivity of 0.691 and a specificity of 0.789. Conclusion The highest VIS in the first 48 h diagnosed with septic shock is related to the clinical outcome in the elderly, and is an independent risk factor to predict 28 d death in them. VIS can be used as an indicator to evaluate the prognosis of elderly patients with septic shock.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

陈阳希,郭蕾,严妤函,杨晨,杨翔,万文辉,刘瑜.血管活性药物评分评估老年脓毒性休克患者预后的价值[J].中华老年多器官疾病杂志,2023,22(8):578~583

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2022-11-25
  • 最后修改日期:
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-08-22
  • 出版日期: