肱踝脉搏波速度联合踝肱指数对老年人主要不良心脑血管事件发生的临床预测价值
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(南京医科大学第一附属医院老年心血管内科,南京 211166)

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R543.5

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江苏省干部保健科研课题(BJ18017, BJ19016)


Clinical predictive value of brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity combined with ankle brachial index for occurrence of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events in the elderly
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(Department of Geriatric Cardiology, First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China)

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    摘要:

    目的 探讨肱踝脉搏波速度(baPWV)与踝肱指数(ABI)对主要不良心脑血管事件(MACCE)的预测价值。方法 回顾性分析2008年8月至2014年9月于南京医科大学第一附属医院老年心血管内科住院的242例患者的临床资料,随访MACCE的发生情况,根据MACCE是否发生将患者分为MACCE组(n=125)和无MACCE组(n=117),分析2组患者的临床特征及baPWV、ABI对MACCE的独立及联合预测价值。采用SPSS 29.0统计软件进行数据分析。根据数据类型分别采用t检验或Mann-Whitney U检验进行组间比较。生存比较采用Kaplan-Meier曲线。结果 242例患者随访时间为3.3(2.6,4.2)年;125例患者(51.7%)到达主要终点。与无MACCE组比较,MACCE组年龄更大,baPWV、脉压差、血尿酸、冠心病发生率、利尿剂用药率更高;ABI、趾臂指数(TBI)、舒张压更低,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。多因素Cox回归分析中,baPWV(HR=1.000,P=0.012)、ABI(HR=0.080,P=0.002)及舒张压(HR=0.981,P=0.012)是MACCE发生的独立预测因子。所建预测模型中加入ABI后,MACCE的受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积(分别为0.674,0.717)及净重新分类指数(95%CI 0.029~0.061;P<0.001)升高。结论 baPWV及ABI是老年人发生MACCE的独立预测因子,二者联合预测MACCE的价值更高。

    Abstract:

    Objective To explore the predictive value of brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) and ankle brachial index (ABI) for major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE). Methods Clinical data of 242 patients admitted to the Department of Geriatric Cardiology of First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from August 2008 to September 2014 were retrospectively analyzed, and the occurrence of MACCE was followed up. Patients were divided into MACCE group (n=125) and non-MACCE group (n=117) according to the occurrence of MACCE, and the clinical characteristics of the two groups were analyzed.The independent and combined predictive value of baPWV and ABI for MACCE were analyzed. SPSS statistics 29.0 was used for data analysis. Student′s t test or Mann-Whitney U test was employed for intergroup comparison according to data type, and Kaplan-Meier curve was adopted for survival comparison. Results The median follow-up time was 3.3 (2.6,4.2) years for the 242 patients, and 125 of them (51.7%) reached the main endpoint. Compared with non-MACCE group, the paitients of MACCE group were older, had higher baPWV, pulse pressure, blood uric acid, higher incidence of coronary heart disease and higher use of diuretic; while, ABI, toe brancial index (TBI) and diastolic blood pressure were lower, and the differences were statistically significant (P<0.05). Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that baPWV (HR=1.000, P=0.012), ABI (HR=0.080, P=0.002) and diastolic blood pressure (HR=0.981, P=0.012) were independent predictors for MACCE. After ABI was added to the prediction model, both the area under ROC curve for predicting MACCE (0.674 and 0.717 respectively) and net reclassification index (NRI, 95%CI 0.029-0.061; P<0.001) were increased. Conclusion BaPWV and ABI are independent predictors for MACCE in elderly people, and their combination shows higher predictive value for MACCE occurrence.

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李秋爽,张晓宇,王向明,卢妙,查志敏,闵笑颜,庞斯斯,程曦,郭妍.肱踝脉搏波速度联合踝肱指数对老年人主要不良心脑血管事件发生的临床预测价值[J].中华老年多器官疾病杂志,2023,22(5):356~361

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  • 收稿日期:2022-10-17
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-05-29
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