全身麻醉下关节置换术后延迟拔管列线图构建
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(重庆医科大学附属第一医院麻醉科,重庆 400016)

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R614.2;R687.4

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中国科技部重点研发项目(2020YFF0305104);重庆市卫健委科研项目(2022WSJK117);重庆市自然科学基金面上项目(CSTB2022NSCQ-MSX0854);四川省科技厅重点研发项目(20YFS0324);重庆医科大学附属第一医院品牌学科建设基金


Development of a nomogram model for delayed extubation after arthroplasty under general anesthesia
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(Department of Anesthesiology, First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400016, China)

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    摘要:

    目的 探讨老年患者全麻关节置换术后延迟拔管的影响因素,构建列线图预测模型。方法 回顾性分析2016年1月至2020年12月重庆医科大学附属第一医院收治的全麻下行髋或膝关节置换术的377例老年患者的电子病历资料。依据手术结束至拔管时间是否超过1h将患者分为常规组(n=297)和延迟组(n=80)。采用R Vision 3.6.1和SPSS 25.0软件进行数据分析。根据数据类型,分别采用t检验、Mann-Whitney U检验、χ2检验或Fisher精确概率法进行组间比较。采用多因素Lasso回归分析筛选术后延迟拔管的危险因素,构建列线图并进行验证。结果 多因素Lasso回归分析结果显示,高龄、高乳酸血症、血压变异系数(CV)与关节置换术后延迟拔管正相关(OR>1;P<0.05);纠正低血钾、术中血糖控制(末次血糖<8.3mmol/L)与延迟拔管负相关(OR<1;P<0.05)。建立列线图模型,由Harrel′s C-index[受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)为0.800,95%CI 0.745~0.854]和Hosmer-Lemeshow偏差度检验(χ2=3.000,P=0.600)证实模型预测效能良好,内部验证的AUC值及校准曲线预测稳定性良好。模型决策曲线显示净获益显著,临床实用性良好。结论 高龄、高乳酸血症和CV是关节置换术后延迟拔管的独立危险因素,纠正低血钾和术中血糖控制为保护因素。研究构建列线图模型对术后拔管延迟有良好临床参考价值。

    Abstract:

    Objective To investigate the influencing factors of delayed extubation after arthroplasty under general anesthesia and develop a nomogram model. Methods A retrospective analysis was performed of the electronic medical records of 377 elderly patients with hip or knee arthroplasty under general anesthesia from January 2016 to December 2020. According to whether the extubation time of tracheal catheter exceeded 1 h, the patients were divided into normal group (n=297 ) and delayed group (n=80). R Vision 3.6.1 and SPSS statistics 25.0 were used for data analysis. Depending on data type, t test, Mann-Whitney U test, χ2 test or Fisher′s exact probability method were used for comparison between groups. Multivariate Lasso regression analysis was used to screen the risk factors of postoperative delayed extubation, and a nomogram was developed and validated. Results Multivariate Lasso regression analysis showed that being aged, hyperlactacidemia, and coefficient of variation (CV) were positively correlated with delayed extubation in arthroplasty (OR>1; P<0.05), and correction of hypokalemia and intraoperative blood glucose control (final blood glucose <8.3 mmol/L) were negatively correlated with delayed extubation (OR<1; P<0.05). A nomogram was developed, and Harrel′s C-index [the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), 0.800,95%CI 0.745-0.854) and Hosmer-Lemeshow deviation test (χ2=3.000; P=0.600) confirmed good prediction efficiency of the model, with stable internally validated AUC value and calibration curve. The decision curve of the model showed significant net benefit and good clinical practicability. Conclusion Being aged, hyperlactacidemia, and CV were independent risk factors for delayed extubation after arthroplasty, while correction of hypokalemia and blood glucose control were protective factors. The nomogram is of high clinic reference value for delayed extubation.

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王思琦,陈代宇,李佼妮,曹俊.全身麻醉下关节置换术后延迟拔管列线图构建[J].中华老年多器官疾病杂志,2023,22(5):321~327

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  • 收稿日期:2022-12-12
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-05-29
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