降钙素原和D-二聚体变化率对老年重症肺炎患者临床预后的评估
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(航天中心医院老年医学二科,北京 100049)

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R446.11+2

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2019年吴阶平医学基金会临床科研专项资助基金(320.6750.19089-2)


Prognostic values of procalcitonin and D-dimer for severe pneumonia in the elderly
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(Department of Gerontology, Aerospace Center Hospital, Beijing 100049, China)

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    摘要:

    目的 探索降钙素原(PCT)与D-二聚体(D-D)的动态变化对老年重症肺炎患者预后的评估作用。方法 选取2019年1月至2020年6月航天中心医院收治的78例老年重症肺炎患者作为研究对象,记录入组患者的预后,治疗前、治疗第3天、第7天,及转出ICU(或死亡)前PCT、D-D水平。计算降钙素原变化率(PCTc)和D-二聚体变化率(D-Dc)值,同时记录患者急性生理学与慢性健康状况评分Ⅱ(APACHEⅡ)。绘制受试者工作特征曲线(ROC),分析PCTc及D-Dc对老年重症肺炎患者临床转归的评估作用。采用SPSS 22.0软件进行数据分析。根据数据类型,组间比较分别采用χ2检验、t检验或者方差分析。结果 78例老年重症肺炎患者中31例(39.7%)经治疗后好转并转出监护室,47例(60.2%)病情恶化死亡;生存组的年龄[(77.30±6.72)岁]及APACHE Ⅱ[(19.29±2.69)分]明显低于死亡组[(83.84±5.54)岁、(21.02±2.72)分],差异均有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。生存组及死亡组患者PCT水平在治疗前和3d时,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05);存活组患者治疗7d、转出或死亡前PCT水平低于死亡组,差异均有统计学意义[(2.57±0.65)和(7.18±1.91)ng/ml,(0.62±0.25)和(10.37±2.47)mg/ml;均P<0.01]。2组患者D-D水平在治疗前和3d时比较,差异均无统计学意义(均P>0.05);存活组D-D呈逐渐下降趋势,但在死亡组呈逐渐升高趋势,治疗7d、转出或死亡前存活组患者的D-D水平明显低于死亡组,差异有统计学意义[(0.75±0.15)和(3.78±0.85)mg/L,(0.40±0.09)和(4.98±0.69)mg/L;P<0.001]。存活组和死亡组PCTc在治疗3、7d及转出或死亡前比较,差异均有统计学意义[5.56 (3.28,8.22)和-3.17 (-4.55,0.00),53.73(49.12,58.93)和-31.75(-40.91,-21.05),89.29(86.36,91.78)和-96.86(-119.40,-68.00),均P<0.001]。D-Dc在生存组始终维持在高水平,并随病情好转升高,D-Dc在死亡组中则相对较低,并随病情恶化逐渐下降,2组在治疗3、7d,转出或死亡前比较,差异均有统计学差异[0.00 (0.00,6.25) 和0.00(-7.69,0.00),58.33(55.29,64.21)和-95.24(-128.50,-60.87),77.22(74.29,83.64)和-161.10(-218.70,-114.20),均P<0.001]。ROC曲线结果显示,PCTc,D-Dc,APACHE Ⅱ对老年重症肺炎预后具有评估意义[曲线下面积(AUC)=0.974,0.779,0.337; P<0.05],其中PCTc对老年重症肺炎患者住院期间死亡预测的AUC为0.974,95%CI为(0.940,1.010),最佳截断点为0.658,灵敏度为93.5%,特异度为97.9%。结论 PCTc及D-Dc可以评估老年重症肺炎患者的临床预后,具有良好的临床应用价值。

    Abstract:

    Objective To explore the dynamic changes of procalcitonin (PCT) and D-dimer (D-D) and investigate their values in the prognosis for severe pneumonia in the elderly patients. Methods A total of 78 elderly patients with severe pneumonia admitted in our hospital from January 2019 to June 2020 were recruited in this study. Their clinical outcome, PCT and D-D levels before treatment on the 3rd and 7th days of treatment, and immediately before out of ICU (or death) were recorded, and change rate of PCT (PCTc) and D-D (D-Dc) were calculated. Their score of Acute Physiology Age Chronic Health Evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ) were also recorded. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn to assess the values of PCTc and D-Dc on the clinical outcome of the severe pneumonia patients. SPSS statistics 22.0 was used for statistical analysis. Data comparison between two groups was perfomed using χ2 test, t test or Fisher exact test depending on date type. Results Among the 78 elderly patients, 31 cases (39.7%) were transferred out of ICU after treatment, and the other 47 (60.2%) patients died. The survival group had significantly younger age [(77.30±6.72) years] and lower APACHE Ⅱ score [(19.29±2.69) points] than the death group [(83.84±5.54) years, (21.02±2.72) points; P<0.05]. There were no obvious differences in PCT level between the survival group and the death group before and in 3 d after treatment (P>0.05). But the level was statistically lower in the survival group than the death group in 7 d after treatment and before transference from ICU or death [(2.57±0.65) vs (7.18±1.91) ng/ml, (0.62±0.25) vs (10.37±2.47) ng/ml; P<0.01]. Before and in 3 d after treatment, no significant difference was seen in D-D level between the 2 groups (P>0.05). Its level was in a decreasing trend in the survival group but in an increasing trend in the death group, and the former group had obviously lower level than the latter group in 7 d after treatment and transference from ICU or before death [(0.75±0.15) vs (3.78±0.85) mg/ml, (0.40±0.09) vs (4.89±0.69) mg/ml, P<0.001]. Statistical difference was seen in PCTc level between the 2 groups in 3 and 7 d after treatment and before out of ICU or death [5.56 (3.28,8.22) vs -3.17 (-4.55,0.00),53.73(49.12,58.93) vs -31.75(-40.91,-21.05),89.29(86.36,91.78) vs -96.86(-119.40,-68.00),all P<0.001]. The D-Dc level maintained at a high level and gradually turned to elevation with the condition better in the survival group. But the level differed from the 2 groups in 3 and 7 d after treatment and before out of ICU or death [0.00 (0.00,6.25) vs 0.00(-7.69,0.00),58.33(55.29,64.21) vs -95.24(-128.50,-60.87),77.22(74.29,83.64) vs -161.10(-218.70,-114.20); all P<0.001]. ROC curve analysis showed that PCTc, D-Dc and APACHEⅡ were of prognostic significances for the elderly with severe pneumonia [area under curve (AUC)=0.974,0.779, 0.337; P<0.05]. PCTc had an AUC of 0.974, a 95% confidence interval of 0.940 to 1.010, cutoff value of 0.658, a sensitivity of 93.5%, and a specificity of 97.9%. Conclusion PCTc and D-Dc could predict the clinical prognosis of elderly patients with severe pneumonia, and show good value in clinical application.

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张依,黄燕,贺永梅,朱娅丽,马水亭,陈济超.降钙素原和D-二聚体变化率对老年重症肺炎患者临床预后的评估[J].中华老年多器官疾病杂志,2021,20(11):839~843

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  • 收稿日期:2021-03-06
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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-11-29
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