中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值联合序贯器官功能衰竭评分对老年脓毒症患者预后的预测作用
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(1.解放军第30;5 医院 重症监护室,北京 100032;2.解放军第30;5 医院 干部病房,北京 100032)

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R459.7

基金项目:

军队保健专项(18BJZ44);中国人民解放军第305医院青年基金(16YNQN04)


Predictive value of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio combined with sequential organ failure assessment score for prognosis of elderly patients with sepsis
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(1. Intensive Care Unit,Bejing 100032, China ;2. Cadre Ward, Chinese PLA Hospital No.305, Bejing 100032, China)

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    摘要:

    目的 探讨中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值(NLR)联合序贯器官功能衰竭评分(SOFA)对老年脓毒症患者预后的预测作用。方法 回顾性分析解放军第305医院2017年1月至2019年8月收治的124例老年脓毒症患者的临床资料,根据预后情况,分为存活组(58例)和死亡组(66例)。比较2组患者性别、年龄、基础病、原发疾病及NLR、SOFA评分,多因素logistic回归分析影响患者预后的危险因素,绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线,分析危险因素对老年脓毒症患者预后的预测作用。结果 2组患者性别组成、年龄、基础病及原发疾病差异无统计学意义,但存活组NLR及SOFA评分明显低于死亡组(P<0.001),且NLR及SOFA评分均为老年脓毒症患者预后的独立危险因素(NLR:OR=1.163,95%CI 1.090~1.241,P<0.001;SOFA评分:OR=1.406,95%CI 1.199~1.649,P<0.001)。NLR预测老年脓毒症患者预后的ROC曲线下面积(AUC)为0.918(95%CI 0.872~0.964,P<0.001),最佳截断值30.68(灵敏度86.2%,特异度81.8%);SOFA预测效能的AUC为0.844(95%CI 0.771~0.916,P<0.001),最佳截断值12.5(灵敏度81.0%,特异度80.3%)。当两者联合预测时,AUC为0.964(P<0.001),优于任何一项指标单独预测的效果。结论 NLR和SOFA评分是预测老年脓毒症患者死亡的独立危险因素,尤其两者联合预测死亡风险时,可明显提高对老年脓毒症预后判断的准确性,为临床工作提供一定指导。

    Abstract:

    Objective To investigate the effect of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) combined with sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score on the prognosis of the elderly patients with sepsis. Methods Clinical data of 124 elderly patients with sepsis admitted in Chinese PLA Hospital No.305 from January 2017 to August 2019 were collected and retrospectively analyzed. According to the prognosis, they were divided into survival group (n=58) and death group (n=66). Their sex, age, underlying diseases, primary disease, NLR and SOFA scores were compared between two groups. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to explore the risk factors affecting the prognosis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted to assess the predictive values of the risk factors for the elderly patients with sepsis. Results There were no significant differences in gender ratio, age, underlying diseases and primary disease between two groups. But, the NLR and SOFA scores in the survival group were significantly lower than those in the death group (P<0.001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that NLR (OR=1.163,95%CI 1.090-1.241, P<0.001) and SOFA scores (OR=1.406,95%CI 1.199-1.649, P<0.001) were independent risk factors for the prognosis of elderly sepsis patients. The area under ROC curve (AUC) of NLR was 0.918 (95%CI 0.872-0.964, P<0.001), and the cut-off value was 30.68 (sensitivity 86.2%, specificity 81.8%). The AUC of SOFA score was 0.844 (95%CI 0.771-0.916, P<0.001), and the cut-off value was 12.5 (sensitivity 81.0%, specificity 80.3%). However, AUC of their combination was 0.964 (P<0.001), which was better than either of them. Conclusion NLR and SOFA scores are the risk factors of death in the elderly patients with sepsis. Their combination can greatly improve the accuracy of prognosis estimation and provide guidance in clinical practice.

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李晓刚,张宁,江宇星,丁慧芳,马建新,马劲夫.中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值联合序贯器官功能衰竭评分对老年脓毒症患者预后的预测作用[J].中华老年多器官疾病杂志,2021,20(2):98~101

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  • 收稿日期:2020-02-16
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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-03-01
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