Abstract:Objective To draw and validate a predictive nomogram for 1-year readmission for patients with heart failure (HF) receiving sakubatril/valsartan treatment. Methods A retrospective study was conducted on the medical records of HF patients at the First Hospital of Shanxi Medical University from June 2018 to December 2021. Cox multifactor analysis was performed on variables screened by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis, and then a nomogram was plotted based on obtained results. The prediction ability was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve. SPSS statistics 26.0 and R 4.1.3 software were used for statistical analysis. Data comparison between two groups was performed using student′s t test, Mann-Whitney U test or Chi-sqaure test depending on data type. Results Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that white blood cell count (HR=1.125,95%CI 1.016-1.245; P=0.023), levels of total cholesterol (HR=1.522,95%CI 1.080-2.144; P=0.016), triglyceride (HR=1.619,95%CI 1.109-2.363; P=0.013) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HR=0.273,95%CI 0.125-0.598; P=0.001) were prognostic factors in HF patients, and then a nomogram model was build based on these indicators. The C-index value of the training set was 0.749 (0.678-0.820), with area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.821 (0.700-0.893) and 0.771 (0.575-0.836) for 6 and 12 months respectively. And the C-index value of the testing set was 0.851 (0.641-0.809), with AUC of 0.851 (0.692-0.940) and 0.847 (0.679-0.995) for 6 and 12 months respectively. These results suggested that the model had moderate predictive value, and the calibration curves indicated the model had good consistency. Conclusion Based on clinical electronic medical records, white blood cell count, total cholesterol, triglyceride and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels are prognostic factors in HF patients after sakubatril/valsartan treatment (P<0.05). Our nomogram has good predictive value and clinical utility, and is helpful for the assessment of short-term prognosis.